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+Saudi Arabia does not want to acquire
+any nuclear bomb. But without a doubt,
+if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we
+will follow suit as soon as possible.
+The rivalry between Iran and Saudi
+Arabia has taken a turn for the worse.
+What used to be a cold war is now
+starting to look a lot hotter. In just
+the past few weeks, Iranian missiles and
+drones have slammed toward Saudi oil
+ports and air bases, damaging places
+like Ras Tanura and the eastern
+province. With Saudi Arabia on fire,
+Riyad has angrily come right out and
+said that trust with Thran is completely
+gone. Reports also say Crown Prince
+Muhammad bin Salman has been talking
+privately with President Trump, urging
+him not to settle for half measures, but
+to burn Iran to the ground. This isn't
+about containment anymore. It's about
+destruction. To understand where this is
+going, you have to step back and trace
+how a revolution that happened decades
+ago has transformed into dead civilians
+in Saudi Arabia's al-Qian
+officials being kicked out of the
+country as enemies of the state. Before
+1979, Iran and Saudi Arabia were rivals.
+But it was the kind of rivalry you can
+manage. There was tension, there was
+competition, but there were also clear
+limits. Iran under the Sha was closely
+aligned with the United States, and so
+was Saudi Arabia. Both countries sat on
+the same side of the table when it came
+to American strategy in the Gulf. They
+competed for influence, for prestige,
+for economic leverage, but it never felt
+like a zero- sum fight. Neither side
+believed the other was trying to erase
+it from the map. Then 1979 hit, and
+everything changed almost overnight. The
+Iranian revolution did not just swap one
+leader for another. It transformed the
+entire identity of the state. Iran was
+no longer operating like a typical
+country focused on borders and
+stability. It rebranded itself as a
+revolutionary force built on the idea
+that its model should not stay inside of
+Iran. The new leadership in Tehran saw
+its system as something meant to spread,
+something meant to reshape the region
+around it. That is where the tension
+really started to sharpen. Because from
+Riyad's perspective, this was not just a
+shift in policy. It was a direct
+challenge to the entire order they
+relied on. Saudi Arabia was not just
+another state in the region. It was a
+monarchy deeply tied to religion. Built
+on its role as the guardian of Sunni
+Islam and the protector of Mecca and
+Medina. Now suddenly Iran was stepping
+forward and positioning itself as the
+voice of Shia Muslims worldwide,
+offering an alternative model that
+directly competed with Saudi legitimacy.
+So what had once been a controlled
+rivalry quickly turned into something
+much deeper. It stopped being about
+trade routes or regional influence and
+became ideological at its core. The
+sectarian divide between Sunni and Shia
+Islam moved to the front. But even that
+was often used as a political tool
+rather than purely a religious one.
+Underneath it all was a simple reality
+both sides understood. This was becoming
+a contest neither could afford to lose.
+And once you reach that point where both
+sides see the stakes as existential, the
+rules change. Iran was no longer just
+acting like a country. It started
+behaving like a movement, like a cause
+that stretched beyond its borders. And
+Saudi Arabia, whether it wanted to or
+not, found itself cast as the main
+barrier standing in its way.
+>> But I've seen that you called the
+Ayatollah Kami the new Hitler of the
+Middle East.
+>> Absolutely.
+>> Why?
+>> Because he wants to expand. He wants to
+create his own project in the Middle
+East. Very much like Hitler who wanted
+to expand at the time. Many countries
+around the world and in Europe did not
+realize how dangerous Hitler was until
+what happened happened. I don't want to
+see the same events happening in the
+Middle East. From there, it was only a
+matter of time before the rivalry
+spilled beyond their borders and into
+the rest of the region. The first real
+explosion came in 1980, pulling the
+rivalry out of the shadows and into open
+conflict. The Iran Iraq war turned Iraq
+under Saddam Hussein into the front line
+against Iran's revolutionary push. Saudi
+Arabia stepped in on Iraq's side, not
+because it trusted Saddam or shared his
+vision, but because it feared what Iran
+had become. From Riyad's perspective,
+stopping Iran mattered more than
+anything else. And from Thran's point of
+view, that changed everything. Saudi
+Arabia was no longer just a rival
+watching from a distance. It was now
+actively backing Iran's enemies. That
+shift hardened attitudes on both sides
+and made the conflict far more personal.
+At the same time, another layer of
+pressure began to build, one that did
+not involve tanks or missiles. Oil
+became a weapon. Saudi Arabia had the
+ability to adjust production and
+influence global prices which gave it a
+powerful economic lever. Iran already
+stretched by war and cut off in many
+ways did not have that same flexibility.
+So when the fighting drained Iran on the
+battlefield, economic pressure squeezed
+it from the outside. It was a onew punch
+that made the rivalry even more intense.
+Then the tension hit one of the most
+sensitive areas imaginable. In 1987
+during the Hajj in Mecca, clashes broke
+out between Iranian pilgrims and Saudi
+security forces. What should have been a
+sacred journey turned into chaos. Over
+400 pilgrims were killed, most of them
+Iranians. The reaction was immediate and
+emotional. Embassies were attacked.
+Anger spilled into the streets and
+diplomatic ties between the two
+countries collapsed. At that point, the
+conflict stopped being just political or
+military. It reached into religion
+itself and into the lives of ordinary
+people. Families lost loved ones during
+what was meant to be a moment of faith
+and unity. That kind of loss does not
+fade quickly. It lingers and it deepens
+resentment across entire communities.
+For a brief stretch after that, things
+seemed to cool down. Through the 1990s
+and the early 2000s, there were
+diplomatic visits, security agreements,
+and attempts to stabilize the
+relationship. On the surface, it looked
+like progress was being made. Like both
+sides were stepping back from the edge,
+but underneath the core issues were
+still there, untouched. There was no
+real agreement on who should lead the
+region. No shared vision for the future
+and no compromise on ideology. The
+rivalry had not ended, it had just gone
+quiet. The ice may have softened, but
+the fire underneath was still burning.
+Then 2003 arrived, and the entire
+picture shifted again. The United States
+launched the Iraq war and removed Saddam
+Hussein from power who was later
+executed in 2006. On paper, it looked
+like the fall of a dictator. In reality,
+it removed a key buffer that had been
+holding Iran back from deeper influence
+in the Arab world. What followed changed
+the region in ways few expected. A
+Shiialled government emerged in Baghdad,
+and Iran moved quickly to build
+influence through political alliances,
+militia networks, and economic ties.
+Within a few years, Thran had a level of
+reach inside Iraq that would have been
+almost unthinkable before the invasion.
+From Saudi Arabia's perspective, this
+was a nightmare unfolding in slow
+motion. What they saw was not just Iran
+gaining influence here and there, but a
+deliberate strategy that seemed to be
+knitting together a belt of Shia power
+across the region. Step by step, Tehran
+was building what many began to call a
+Shia crescent, stretching from Iran
+through Iraq into Syria and finally
+Lebanon. And this is where the rivalry
+takes on a sharper edge. The sectarian
+divide was no longer just about identity
+or belief. It became a tool, something
+both sides could use to mobilize
+support, justify their actions, and
+deepen divisions across the region. The
+shift did not just reshape Iraq. It
+tilted the balance of power across the
+entire Middle East. And once states
+began to weaken under that pressure, the
+rivalry found new places to play out,
+turning fragile countries into
+battlegrounds. This is the point where
+the rivalry fully moved into the open
+and became impossible to ignore. It
+shifted into its most visible form,
+proxy wars. Iran built what it called
+the axis of resistance. A network of
+allied groups and militias spread across
+the region. Instead of sending large
+armies, Thran leaned into something more
+flexible. Weapons, training, funding,
+and guidance flowed outward. And in
+return, those groups acted as forward
+pressure points. It was a lowcost
+strategy with high impact. Iran extended
+its reach without exposing itself
+directly while Saudi Arabia was forced
+to stay alert across multiple fronts.
+Saudi Arabia responded by tightening its
+alignment with the United States and
+this is where the rivalry started to
+scale beyond the region. Riyad opened
+key bases like King Fad air base to
+American forces especially during the
+Gulf War. By the 1990s, thousands of US
+troops were stationed on Saudi soil,
+embedding American military presence
+directly into the kingdom's defense
+structure. At the same time, Saudi
+Arabia poured massive resources into
+arms deals. By the mid2010s, these
+agreements had crossed the 100 billion
+mark, bringing in advanced fighter jets,
+missile defense systems, and heavy
+armor. It was not just about buying
+weapons. It was about anchoring Saudi
+security inside the American system. And
+then there was the oil, quietly
+reinforcing everything in the
+background. Saudi Arabia remained the
+world's swing producer, able to raise or
+cut output to stabilize global prices.
+That gave Washington confidence that
+even if Iran disrupted the supply, the
+market could be balanced. So energy
+became a part of the strategy, tying
+economic power directly into military
+positioning. At the same time, another
+alignment took shape, more quietly, but
+just as important. Israel, though not
+formally allied with Saudi Arabia, found
+itself moving in the same direction.
+Both saw Iran as the central threat.
+Intelligence cooperation grew behind the
+scenes, especially around groups like
+Hezbollah and Iran's nuclear ambitions.
+Even as early as the 2000s, reports of
+back channel contacts were surfacing,
+laying the groundwork for deeper
+coordination later on. What emerged was
+a counter network with Saudi Arabia at
+the center, backed by American military
+power, financial leverage, and quiet
+Israeli support. The rivalry was no
+longer just between these two countries.
+It had become a wider contest shaping
+the region. One of the main forces
+pulling that counter network together so
+tightly was Iran's steady push towards
+nuclear capability. Now, Tehran has
+always maintained that its program was
+for peaceful use. Things like
+electricity generation and medical
+isotopes. But outside of Iran, that
+argument never fully convinced anyone.
+From the early 2000s, concerns kept
+growing as evidence emerged for hidden
+facilities, expanded centrifuge
+programs, and uranium enrichment levels
+that went far beyond what a civilian
+program would require. And this is where
+the timeline starts to matter. After the
+Iraq war removed a major regional check
+on Iran, the program began to move
+faster. By the time inspectors uncovered
+sites like Natan's nuclear facility and
+Ford fuel enrichment plant, Iran had
+already made significant progress. That
+discovery changed how the region viewed
+Tehran's intentions. In 2015, the joint
+comprehensive plan of action brought
+temporary relief. Sanctions were eased
+and Iran agreed to limit its enrichment.
+For a moment, it looked like the issue
+might stabilize. But in Riyad, there was
+a deep skepticism from the start. Saudi
+leaders saw the deal as a pause, not a
+solution. Something that allowed Iran to
+keep key parts of its program while
+buying time. When the agreement
+collapsed in 2018, those fears seemed to
+play out. Iran began accelerating once
+again, pushing enrichment levels higher
+and higher. It reached around 60%
+purity, which is not quite weapons
+grade, but technically very close. By
+the beginning of the 2020s, Iran had
+accumulated large stockpiles of
+highlyenriched material. At the same
+time, what experts called breakout time,
+the window needed to produce enough
+material for a weapon, shrank
+dramatically, in some estimates, down to
+weeks. Saudi Arabia, this was not just
+another security concern. It was
+something much deeper. A nuclearcapable
+Iran would not just strengthen Thran
+directly, it could also shield its
+network of regional allies, allowing
+them to operate with greater confidence
+while Saudi Arabia faced the risk of
+direct escalation. From Riyad's
+perspective, that kind of imbalance was
+unacceptable. That is why Muhammad bin
+Salman spoke so clearly on this issue.
+If Iran developed a nuclear weapon,
+Saudi Arabia would pursue one as well
+and quickly.
+>> Are you concerned though Iran gets a
+nuclear weapon about them getting a
+nuclear weapon?
+>> Well, we are concerned of any country
+getting a nuclear weapon. That's a bad
+move and you don't need to get a nuclear
+weapon because you cannot use it. Even
+if Iran get a nuclear weapon, any
+country use a nuclear weapon, that mean
+they are having a war with the rest of
+the world. The world cannot see another
+Horushima. If the world see 100,000
+people dead, that mean you are in a war
+with the rest of the world. So it's a
+useless effort to reach nuclear weapon
+because you cannot use it.
+>> That was not framed as a threat but as a
+calculation, a matter of survival in a
+region where the balance of power could
+shift overnight. By 2025, the situation
+reached a boiling point. Israel, with
+Washington's backing, moved beyond
+covert cyber campaigns and stepped into
+direct military action. The strikes were
+part of an Israeli coordinated effort to
+hit Iran's most sensitive nuclear
+infrastructure. The targets were not
+random. Natans, long the centerpiece of
+Iran's enrichment program, was struck
+with precise munitions aimed at
+disabling advanced centrifuge halls. For
+Dao, buried under a mountain near K and
+designed to withstand air strikes, was
+attacked with bunker buster ordinance.
+Facilities near East Vahan, including
+uranium conversion sites and research
+centers, were also hit. The strikes were
+supported by US intelligence, satellite
+surveillance, and logistical
+coordination, though Washington stopped
+short of deploying its own aircraft. The
+campaign echoed earlier efforts like
+stuckset in 2010, the cyber operation
+that destroyed hundreds of centrifuges,
+and the 2021 sabotage at Natans that
+knocked out power systems. But 2025
+marked the first time Israel openly
+escalated to sustained air strikes
+across multiple sites. Analysts
+estimated that the attacks destroyed or
+disabled hundreds of centrifuges and set
+back enrichment capacity by at least 2
+to 3 years. Yet, the strikes did not
+eliminate the program. Iran has
+dispersed much of its infrastructure,
+hardened facilities like Forau, and
+stockpiled enriched uranium in multiple
+locations. Within months, inspectors
+reported that Iran was still holding
+over 120 kg of uranium enriched to 60%,
+enough to shorten breakout time to mere
+weeks. Thrron responded defiantly,
+accelerating the work at undisclosed
+sites and restricting international
+inspectors further. For Saudi Arabia,
+the strikes were both a relief and a
+warning. Relief because Israel had acted
+on what Riyad saw as an existential
+threat. Warning because even after such
+a heavy blow, Iran's nuclear capability
+remained alive. The nightmare of a
+nuclearcapable Iran had not been erased,
+only delayed. And that delay came with a
+risk of retaliation, proxy escalation,
+and the possibility that Iran would
+double down underground, making the next
+round even harder to stop. This is why
+the nuclear issue sits at the very
+center of the rivalry. It is not just
+about centrifuges and enrichment levels.
+It is about the balance of power across
+the Gulf, the credibility of alliances,
+and the fear that one breakthrough in
+Iran could trigger a regional arms race
+that lasts for decades. For Saudi
+Arabia, stopping that outcome is not
+just one priority among many. It is at
+the core of how it sees its own security
+and its place in the region. That same
+drive to contain Iran's expanding threat
+pushed the rivalry straight into open
+battlegrounds across the region. If this
+nuclear shadow and all the proxy chaos
+has you hooked, smash that like button
+and subscribe. We're just getting into
+the really messy parts. From there, the
+conflict settled into specific
+battlegrounds and Yemen quickly became
+one of the most important. Look at the
+map and you can see why Iran made this
+country a battlefield. Yemen sits along
+the Saudi Arabia southern border and it
+straddles the Bob al- Mandeb straight, a
+choke point through which nearly 10% of
+global trade and oil shipments pass.
+Influence there meant pressure right on
+the kingdom's doorstep and leverage over
+one of the world's most critical
+shipping routes. In other words, the
+perfect location. This is where the
+Houthis rose as a powerful force. Backed
+by Iran, they expanded their reach from
+Sada into the capital SA by 2014. Once
+again, Iran did not deploy large armies.
+It relied on a lowcost, high impact
+toolkit. Ballistic missiles, drones
+capable of striking hundreds of
+kilometers inside Saudi territory,
+training, and sustained financial
+support. Saudi Arabia responded in 2015
+with a military intervention called
+Operation Decisive Storm, mobilizing
+over 100 fighter jets, 150,000 troops,
+and coalition partners from nine
+countries to push the Houthis back and
+restore a friendly government. Then the
+conflict delivered a shock that spread
+far beyond the region. In September of
+2019, coordinated drone and cruise
+missile attacks hit the massive Abk oil
+processing facility and the Karayas oil
+field. Upcake alone handles about 7
+million barrels of oil per day, nearly
+half of Saudi Arabia's production
+capacity. Almost overnight, Saudi output
+dropped by 5.7 million barrels per day,
+roughly 5% of global supply. Oil prices
+spiked by 20% in a single day, the
+largest jump in decades. Tanker
+insurance costs soared, and the world
+was reminded how fragile the energy
+supply could be when a single strike in
+the desert reverberates across global
+markets. And that moment highlighted
+something important. Iran did not need a
+direct invasion to create serious
+damage. Yemen became a pressure point,
+sitting right on Saudi Arabia's border.
+But behind the strategy was a
+devastating human cost. The war
+triggered what the US called the world's
+worst humanitarian crisis. Famine took
+hold across large areas. Medical systems
+collapsed. By 2022, estimates placed the
+total death toll from fighting, hunger,
+and disease at over 377,000
+with 70% of those deaths being children
+under the age of five. More than four
+million people were displaced. And 80%
+of Yemen's population, which is over 24
+million, required humanitarian
+assistance. For millions, this was not
+about geopolitics. It was about daily
+survival, empty plates, and lives cut
+short before they could fully begin. At
+the same time, another front burned just
+as intensely. In Syria, when the
+government faced collapse, Iran stepped
+in heavily to support Bashar al-Assad.
+It deployed thousands of Revolutionary
+Guard advisers and special units,
+funneled billions in financial aid, and
+worked closely with Hezbollah fighters
+on the ground. By 2013, Hezbollah had
+committed over 7,000 combatants to
+Syria, playing a decisive role in
+battles like Kusair. Iran also mobilized
+Shia militias from Iraq, Afghanistan,
+and Pakistan, creating a transnational
+force that gave Assad critical manpower
+when his army was crumbling. Saudi
+Arabia backed opposing forces,
+channeling money and weapons into rebel
+groups through covert networks.
+Alongside Turke and Qatar, Riyad sought
+to weaken Assad and deny Iran its
+foothold. For Iran, however, Syria was
+not just one battlefield. It was a
+critical link, a corridor that connected
+Thran to Baghdad, Damascus, and
+ultimately Hezbollah in Lebanon.
+Securing it meant long-term strategic
+depth and direct access to the
+Mediterranean, a prize that reshaped the
+balance of power in the Levant. But the
+cost was enormous. The Syrian war became
+one of the deadliest conflicts in the
+21st century. Over half a million people
+were killed according to UN estimates
+and more than 6.8 million fled the
+country as refugees with another 6
+million displaced internally. Entire
+cities such as Aleppo, Holmes, and Raqqa
+were reduced to rubble. Chemical weapons
+were used repeatedly, drawing
+international outrage. The economy
+collapsed with GDP shrinking by more
+than 60% between 2011 and 2016. The war
+dragged on for years, leaving deep scars
+across generations and creating a
+humanitarian crisis that reverberated
+far beyond Syria's borders. And yet,
+beneath the shifting alliances and the
+devastation, the core dynamic remained
+the same. Syria was another stage where
+Iran and Saudi Arabia fought through
+proxies, each determined to deny the
+other victory. Strip away the layers,
+and it was the same rivalry playing out
+in blood and ruin. Then there were the
+quieter arenas, places where influence
+grew without full-scale war. In Iraq,
+Iranianbacked militias gained real power
+inside both security forces and
+politics. In Lebanon, Hezbollah became
+the dominant force, shaping government
+decisions while maintaining a large
+arsenal. In Bahrain, Saudi Arabia sent
+troops in 2011 to shut down unrest it
+saw as linked to Iranian influence. What
+became clear was that this rivalry did
+not stay in one place. It moved,
+adapted, and spread wherever there was
+an opening. And every now and then, the
+tension did not stay in the background.
+It broke out in ways that were sudden,
+direct, and impossible to ignore. One of
+the clearest moments came in January of
+2016 when Saudi Arabia executed Nimmer
+al- Nimmer, a prominent Shia cleric from
+the eastern province. Nim was not just a
+religious figure. He had become a strong
+and outspoken critic of the Saudi
+monarchy, calling for greater rights for
+the Shia minority and openly challenging
+the legitimacy of the ruling system.
+From Riad's perspective, that kind of
+defiance was not just dissent. It was a
+threat to stability and authority. So,
+the execution carried a message. It was
+meant to show strength at home, to warn
+others against crossing that line, and
+to signal beyond Saudi borders that the
+kingdom would not tolerate what it saw
+as Iranian influenced unrest inside its
+territory. But actions like that do not
+stay contained, especially in a rivalry
+already charged with tension. The
+reaction inside of Iran was immediate
+and intense. Nimmer was widely respected
+among Shia communities, and his
+execution was framed as more than a
+political act. It was seen as an attack
+on Shia identity itself. Protests spread
+quickly. Crowds filled the streets. And
+in Thran, demonstrators stormed and set
+fire to the Saudi embassy, forcing
+diplomats to flee. Iranian leaders
+condemned the execution in the strongest
+terms, calling it a crime and pointing
+to it as proof of Saudi hostility
+towards Shia Muslims. Within days, the
+fallout escalated. Saudi Arabia cut
+diplomatic ties with Iran, and several
+of its allies followed, deepening the
+divide even further. What started as a
+domestic decision inside Saudi Arabia
+quickly turned into a regional crisis.
+And this is where the deeper impact
+becomes clear. The episode did not just
+raise tensions for a moment. It pushed
+the rivalry into a more emotional and
+entrenched space. Sectarian lines
+hardened, turning what was often a
+political struggle into something that
+felt more personal and more visceral. At
+the same time, any remaining channels of
+dialogue between the two governments
+collapsed, making cooperation even
+harder to imagine. It also strengthened
+the narratives both sides had been
+building for years. For Iran, this was
+proof that Saudi Arabia oppressed Shia
+communities. For Saudi Arabia, it
+reinforced the belief that Iran was
+interfering and stirring unrest within
+its borders. And that is what makes
+moments like this so dangerous. What
+might have stayed a domestic issue
+instead became another flash point in a
+much larger cold war. Underneath it all,
+nothing had really changed. Saudi Arabia
+and Iran were still locked in the same
+contest for legitimacy and influence,
+still pushing through proxies, still
+fighting through symbols, and still
+operating on the same belief on both
+sides that backing down was not an
+option. After years of this draining
+cycle, both sides started to look
+exhausted. And that is when something
+unexpected began to take shape. In March
+of 2023, something happened that caught
+almost everyone offguard. Saudi Arabia
+and Iran announced they would restore
+diplomatic ties, and the deal was not
+brokered by the United States, but by
+China. Beijing stepped in as the
+middleman, offering neutral ground and
+backing it with economic incentives. For
+both Riyad and Thrron, it created an
+opportunity to reset the relationship
+without the weight that usually came
+with Western mediation. And for a
+moment, it looked like it might actually
+work. Within months, embassies reopened
+in both capitals, and the tone between
+the two sides softened. After years of
+escalation, proxy conflicts, and
+diplomatic breakdowns, this felt
+different. It felt like a pause, maybe
+even the start of something more stable.
+The symbolism alone carried a real
+weight. Saudi Arabia had strong reasons
+to calm things down. Its vision 2030
+plan depended on stability, foreign
+investment, and a predictable
+environment to diversify its economy.
+Iran, on the other side, was under heavy
+sanctions and constant pressure. So any
+breathing space was valuable. And then
+there was China, which got exactly what
+it wanted. It proved it could step into
+the Middle East and play a serious
+diplomatic role, not just an economic
+one. And that is why the deal drew so
+much attention. Some started asking a
+bigger question. Was this a sign that
+American influence in the region was
+beginning to shift? But once you look
+past the headlines, the limits of the
+agreement became clear. The hardest
+issues were left untouched. The war in
+Yemen was still unresolved.
+Iranianbacked militias across the region
+continued operating as before. And the
+central question, who would dominate the
+Middle East, was never even addressed.
+There was no deep security guarantees,
+no major economic integration plans, and
+most importantly, no real foundation of
+trust between the two sides. The
+agreement created a pause, but it did
+not resolve the rivalry itself. So, the
+handshake was real, but the solution was
+not. The deal bought time, and for a
+while, that was enough. But as soon as
+the pressure began to build again, the
+cracks started to show. And that was the
+reminder. This rivalry was never truly
+settled. It was only waiting for the
+next moment to resurface. And now we
+arrive at the present moment. And the
+tone is shifting again. In 2026, the old
+rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia is
+heating up fast. Iranbacked attacks are
+rising and the atmosphere across the
+region feels sharper, tighter, and more
+dangerous than it has in years. Saudi
+leaders are no longer speaking carefully
+or leaving room for ambiguity. They are
+saying openly that trust is gone and the
+language coming out of Riyad carries a
+much harder edge. The proxy battles
+never really stopped and groups like the
+Houthis remain a constant pressure
+point, striking at ships in the Red Sea
+and threatening energy flows. This time,
+the impact is landing exactly where
+Saudi Arabia feels most exposed. That is
+what makes this moment so different. For
+years, Saudi Arabia has been building
+towards something bigger than oil.
+Vision 2030 was designed as a long-term
+shift, a way to reduce dependence and
+open up new economic paths. Projects
+like Nom rising along the Red Sea coast
+were meant to stabilize that future. New
+trade routes and logistics hubs were
+supposed to help make the kingdom more
+resilient. But when the shipping lanes
+are disrupted, insurance costs jump and
+cargo slows down. And those plans start
+to look more fragile than expected. What
+once felt like a distant conflict is now
+pressing directly against Saudi Arabia's
+economic ambitions. For a long time,
+Riad's strategy was built around
+containment. The goal was to limit
+Iran's reach, keep the rivalry from
+boiling over, and avoid a full-scale
+escalation. That approach is starting to
+shift. Reports suggest that Muhammad bin
+Salman is taking a more aggressive
+stance, even raising the issue in
+private conversations with Donald Trump,
+pushing the idea that this moment could
+be used to weaken Iran more deeply. But
+that kind of thinking comes with serious
+risks. Bringing down a system does not
+guarantee stability. More often, it
+opens the doors to chaos, internal power
+struggles, and conflicts that spill
+beyond its borders.
+>> You've been rivals for centuries. At its
+heart, what is this rift about? Is it a
+battle for Islam?
+>> Iran is at
+>> Iran is not a rival to Saudi Arabia. Its
+army is not among the top five armies in
+the Muslim world. The Saudi economy is
+larger than the Iranian economy. Iran is
+far from being equal to Saudi Arabia.
+Iran, on the other side, continues to
+play a different kind of game. Instead
+of direct confrontation, it leans on its
+network of proxies, using smaller
+targeted strikes that keep pressure
+constant without triggering a full-scale
+war. It is a strategy built on
+flexibility. Trouble can be stirred in
+multiple places at once, forcing Saudi
+Arabia to stretch its attention. Riyad
+counters with money, diplomacy, and
+global partnerships. But the difference
+in styles makes the whole situation
+harder to predict. At the same time,
+Iran is dealing with growing pressures
+at home. The economy is under strain.
+The currency has weakened. Inflation has
+climbed past 40% in periods and youth
+unemployment remains high. That kind of
+pressure builds slowly but steadily
+especially among younger people and it
+can go in either direction. It can turn
+into frustration with the system or it
+can harden resistance when outside
+pressure increases. So this is no longer
+just another cycle in a long rivalry. It
+feels more like a pattern that keeps
+resetting. Each round sharper than the
+last. Every pause has been temporary and
+every return has come back with more
+intensity. The current moment carries
+that same feeling, but with higher
+stakes, as if the outcome could reshape
+more than just the balance between these
+two countries. The Houthis remain active
+near the Bob Elmanddeb Strait, one of
+the busiest trade routes in the world. A
+significant share of global trade passes
+through that corridor. Every attack
+pushes insurance costs higher, slows
+down shipping, and raises the price of
+fuel and goods. The effects travel far
+beyond the region, reaching into
+everyday life in places that feel far
+removed from the conflict. For Saudi
+Arabia, the threat is immediate and
+personal. Key oil facilities sit within
+range, and every successful strike is a
+reminder of how vulnerable the kingdom's
+core income still is. The 2019 attack on
+the Abka oil processing facility showed
+just how quickly a disruption can shake
+global markets. If incidents like that
+become more frequent, oil prices will
+rise, inflation will follow, and the
+impact will be felt far beyond the
+Middle East. That is why outside powers
+remain deeply involved. The United
+States maintains close security ties
+with Saudi Arabia, from arms deals to
+intelligence cooperation, trying to
+balance support with the need to prevent
+a wider conflict. China approaches it
+from a different angle. It helped broker
+the 2023 agreement between Riad and
+Thran, aiming to position itself as a
+stabilizing force, but its core interest
+remains steady trade and reliable energy
+flows. The challenge for Beijing,
+however, is clear. It can open
+diplomatic doors, but it does not have
+the military reach to enforce stability
+when tensions rise. That leaves it with
+influence but limited control and that
+creates a crowded complicated stage.
+Major powers are involved, each with its
+own interests but none fully in charge.
+In that kind of environment, the risk of
+miscalculation increases. Saudi
+thinking, however, is clearly evolving.
+Containment no longer feels sufficient.
+Signals coming out of Riyad suggest a
+growing belief that the only lasting
+solution lies in change within Iran
+itself. That points towards a shift from
+defense to a more assertive posture
+using economic pressure, political
+leverage, and possibly more. Iran is not
+an easy target. It has a large
+population, experienced security forces,
+and decades of experience adapting under
+sanctions. But the economic strain is
+real. So, the rivalry is entering
+another dangerous phase. Both sides are
+under strain. Both are determined, and
+both have their reasons to push harder.
+What happens next will decide whether
+the cycle continues or whether it
+finally breaks into something much
+bigger. So, what does come next? That is
+the question hanging over everything.
+And the answer is not simple. There are
+a few paths ahead and none of them feel
+entirely stable. One path is the slow
+burn we've already seen play out for
+years. Proxy strikes continue.
+Infrastructure gets hit in waves and
+pressure builds around key shipping
+lanes. It keeps the region tense, always
+on edge, but stops just short of a
+full-scale war. It is messy, costly, and
+unpredictable. But it is also familiar.
+Both sides know how to operate in that
+space. But that balance is fragile, and
+it does not take much to break it.
+Another path is a serious misstep. one
+attack goes too far or one response
+crosses a line that cannot be walked
+back. In that moment, the conflict could
+jump from controlled pressure to
+something much bigger, much harder to
+contain. Then there is the wild card and
+it sits inside of Iran itself. Economic
+strain, strict political control, and
+growing frustration have already
+triggered protests in the past. If those
+pressures build again, things could
+shift quickly, but even that does not
+guarantee stability. If the system
+weakens or cracks, it could open the
+door to internal power struggles,
+fragmentation, and instability that
+spills into neighboring countries.
+Change does not always mean calm.
+Sometimes it creates a different kind of
+chaos. And all of this ties back to one
+simple reality. This rivalry sits right
+at the center of global energy and
+trade. A missile launched from Yemen or
+a strike near Saudi oil facilities does
+not stay local. It ripples outward.
+Shipping costs rise. Oil prices react
+instantly. Those increases move through
+supply chains and end up in everyday
+life in fuel prices, in transport costs,
+in your groceries. Even people like you
+who might be far from this conflict
+still feel the impact. Ultimately, the
+full arc of this cold war story
+stretches all the way back to the
+Iranian revolution. Since then, it has
+been a long contest of proxy conflicts,
+brief pauses, and renewed tensions, with
+each round carrying higher stakes, and
+sharper consequences than the last. That
+is why 2026 feels like such a critical
+moment. The question is no longer just
+about who gains the upper hand. It is
+whether this rivalry continues to pull
+the region and much of the world along
+with it or whether something finally
+shifts. The Middle East has lived
+through enough rounds of conflict and
+uneasy calm. The cost has been high and
+it keeps rising. What happens next will
+decide whether this rivalry keeps
+dragging everyone else along with it or
+whether the pattern finally breaks. If
+you want to stay ahead of the next
+explosion in this rivalry, hit that like
+button and subscribe. Trust me, the
+fireworks are far from over and neither
+is the drama.
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+TRANSLATED TRANSCRIPT
+=============================================
+
+The brave men of the Immortal Guard give you courage and
+I salute your dedication.
+In the last 3 months, thousands of you
+Small but effective kernels throughout [music]
+Iran, shining manifestations of bravery
+you have created
+What you've done [music] for centuries
+It will be narrated. The nation of Iran is your sacrifice
+The price that is especially on 18 and 19 December for
+You have paid for the freedom of the country, never forget
+will not
+I told you help was on the way. now
+That help has arrived. The bravest of you and
+I want the most devoted children of Iran to
+The title of the pioneering force of the nation in every possible way
+The repressive apparatus of the Islamic Republic now
+From the sky below the [musical] beats are heavy
+Worn out and weaken up the field
+provide its final collapse.
+Note that this call for
+It is not a street demonstration but a call to
+You youth immortal guard to bring
+Smart and effective blows to silencers
+Tired and worn out way to attend
+Millions of Iranian people are smoother in the streets
+to be
+At the same time, keep your life as a priority
+Give because your presence in the final battle for
+Flood protection for millions of people is necessary and
+It is necessary that you are from Tovar Rostam and Kavei
+Your enemies are from Zhak
+In this battle between good and evil between light and darkness
+You are on the right side of history
+you are standing
+And the hope and prayer of a great nation is on your way.
+I am impatiently waiting for the Russian in
+The first freed city of Iran next to you
+Let's stand up and win the final victory together.
+the future
+[music]
+proud people ir
+take your will take this will
+your only for generation
+generation
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